Nigeria: Oil production affects jobs data

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption COVID-19 was recently decommissioned A third of Nigerian workers lost their jobs as a result of an increase in production under the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic…

Nigeria: Oil production affects jobs data

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption COVID-19 was recently decommissioned

A third of Nigerian workers lost their jobs as a result of an increase in production under the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) indicator, official figures show.

A breakdown of revised GDP, taken in March, now says around 20% of the estimated 1.79 million jobs lost were due to the massive off-take of oil from OML30.

The development prompted the CBN to start reviewing economic policies.

It has published the full details, which do not allow for counterfactual calculations.

COVID-19, introduced in February 2018, measured the value of Nigeria’s output by reference to earnings in its annual oil auctions.

Once the benchmark Brent crude price reaches a certain level, the CBN releases a print for the expected production of the commodity, the non-oil output related to it and the GDP output based on these adjustments.

Nigeria has a notoriously poor track record when it comes to numbers, and analyst Walter Kälin of the World Bank believes it could face more regression:

“Because GDP in a number of indicators has shown even further declines that point to even further regression, we could end up with the first recession or slow growth since 1990.”

More facts and figures:

Facts and figures

In March the CBN announced that revisions to GDP figures meant that 2.5% of Nigerian employment had been lost in 2018 – and 3.5% the year before.

It also said that the main decline, from 30.4 million to 29.7 million, was due to a reduction in Nigerian oil production.

For illustrative purposes, the CBN has provided data for the CPI (which measures inflation) and GDP adjusted for inflation.

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